For an quick enlightening graphic  Go to "Active Tropical Cyclones" and click on "Available" .

For more technical detail, check out the"Discussion" of "Active Tropical Systems" at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ The comparisons between the different computer modeling systems, gives you a good feel for the consensus-building that goes into the forecast released to the public.

In other words, how much of a guess their forecast really is.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ If you really want to see some of these models and more details.

Also for a good enthusiasts collection of links there is http://www.weatherwatchers.org/tropical/

After a storm hits, http://stormcarib.com/ acts like a bulletin board for posting e-mails from the effected islands, complete with digital pictures.

For a site with RealAudio there is http://www.hurricanecity.com/